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Herbert A. Simon - Autobiography

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08/03/2004 12.34 http://www.nobel.se/economics/laureates/1978/simon-autobio.html<br />

<strong>Herbert</strong> A. <strong>Simon</strong> – <strong>Autobiography</strong><br />

I was born in Milwaukee,<br />

Wisconsin, on June 15, 1916.<br />

My father, an electrical<br />

engineer, had come to the<br />

United States in 1903 after<br />

earning his engineering<br />

diploma at the Technische<br />

Hochschule of Darmstadt,<br />

Germany. He was an inventor<br />

and designer of electrical<br />

control gear, later also a<br />

patent attorney. An active<br />

leader in professional and civic<br />

affairs, he received an<br />

honorary doctorate from Marquette University for his<br />

many activities in the community. My mother, an<br />

accomplished pianist, was a third generation American,<br />

her forebears having been '48ers who immigrated from<br />

Prague and Köln. Among my European ancestors were<br />

piano builders, goldsmiths, and vintners but to the best<br />

of my knowledge, no professionals of any kind. The<br />

Merkels in Köln were Lutherans, the Goldschmidts in<br />

Prague and the <strong>Simon</strong>s in Ebersheim, Jews.<br />

The Bank of Sweden<br />

Prize in Economic<br />

Sciences in Memory of<br />

Alfred Nobel 1978<br />

Press Release<br />

Presentation Speech<br />

<strong>Herbert</strong> A. <strong>Simon</strong><br />

<strong>Autobiography</strong><br />

Prize Lecture<br />

Banquet Speech<br />

Other Resources<br />

1977 1979<br />

The 1978 Prize in:<br />

Physics<br />

Chemistry<br />

Physiology or Medicine<br />

Literature<br />

Peace<br />

Economic Sciences<br />

Find a Laureate:<br />

Name<br />

My home nurtured in me an early attachment to books<br />

and other things of the intellect, to music, and to the out<br />

of doors. I received an excellent general education from<br />

the public elementary and high schools in Milwaukee,<br />

supplemented by the fine science department of the<br />

public library and the many books I found at home.<br />

School work was interesting but not difficult, leaving me<br />

plenty of time for sandlot baseball and football, for<br />

hiking and camping, for reading and for many<br />

extracurricular activities during my high school years. A<br />

brother, five years my senior, while not a close<br />

companion, gave me some anticipatory glimpses of each<br />

stage of growing up. Our dinner table at home was a<br />

place for discussion and debate - often political,<br />

sometimes scientific.<br />

Until well along in my high school years, my interests<br />

were quite dispersed, although they were increasingly<br />

directed toward science - of what sort I wasn't sure. For<br />

most adolescents, science means physics, mathematics,<br />

chemistry, or biology - those are the subjects to which<br />

they are exposed in school. The idea that human<br />

behavior may be studied scientifically is never hinted<br />

until much later in the educational process - it was<br />

certainly not conveyed by history or "civics" courses as<br />

they were then taught.<br />

My case was different. My mother's younger brother,<br />

Harold Merkel, had studied economics at the Universtity<br />

of Wisconsin under John R. Commons. Uncle Harold had<br />

died after a brief career with the National Industrial<br />

Conference Board, but his memory was always present<br />

in our household as an admired model, as were some of<br />

his books on economics and psychology. In that way I<br />

discovered the social sciences. Uncle Harold having been<br />

an ardent formal debater, I followed him in that activity


08/03/2004 12.34 http://www.nobel.se/economics/laureates/1978/simon-autobio.html<br />

too.<br />

In order to defend free trade, disarmament, the single<br />

tax and other unpopular causes in high school debates,<br />

I was led to a serious study of Ely's economics textbook,<br />

Norman Angell's The Great Illusion, Henry George's<br />

Progress and Poverty, and much else of the same sort.<br />

By the time I was ready to enter the University of<br />

Chicago, in 1933, I had a general sense of direction. The<br />

social sciences, I thought, needed the same kind of rigor<br />

and the same mathematical underpinnings that had<br />

made the "hard" sciences so brilliantly successful. I<br />

would prepare myself to become a mathematical social<br />

scientist. By a combination of formal training and self<br />

study, the latter continuing systematically well into the<br />

1940s, I was able to gain a broad base of knowledge in<br />

economics and political science, together with<br />

reasonable skills in advanced mathematics, symbolic<br />

logic, and mathematical statistics. My most important<br />

mentor at Chicago was the econometrician and<br />

mathematical economist, Henry Schultz, but I studied<br />

too with Rudolf Carnap in logic, Nicholas Rashevsky in<br />

mathematical biophysics, and Harold Lasswell and<br />

Charles Merriam in political science. I also made a<br />

serious study of graduate-level physics in order to<br />

strengthen and practice my mathematical skills and to<br />

gain an intimate knowledge of what a "hard" science<br />

was like, particularly on the theoretical side. An<br />

unexpected by-product of the latter study has been a<br />

lifelong interest in the philosophy of physics and several<br />

publications on the axiomatization of classical<br />

mechanics.<br />

My career was settled at least as much by drift as by<br />

choice. An undergraduate field study for a term paper<br />

developed an interest in decision-making in<br />

organizations. On graduation in 1936, the term paper<br />

led to a research assistantship with Clarence E. Ridley in<br />

the field of municipal administration, carrying out<br />

investigations that would now be classified as<br />

operations research. The research assistantship led to<br />

the directorship, from 1939 to 1942, of a research group<br />

at the University of California, Berkeley, engaged in the<br />

same kinds of studies. By arrangement with the<br />

University of Chicago, I took my doctoral exams by mail<br />

and moonlighted a dissertation on administrative<br />

decision-making during my three years at Berkeley.<br />

When our research grant was exhausted, in 1942, jobs<br />

were not plentiful and my military obligations were<br />

uncertain. I secured a position in political science at<br />

Illinois Institute of Technology by the intercession of a<br />

friend who was leaving. The return to Chicago had<br />

important, but again largely unanticipated,<br />

consequences for me. At that time, the Cowles<br />

Commission for Research in Economics was located at<br />

the University of Chicago. Its staff included Jacob<br />

Marschak and Tjalling Koopmans who were then<br />

directing the graduate work of such students as<br />

Kenneth Arrow, Leo Hurwicz, Lawrence Klein, and Don<br />

Patinkin. Oscar Lange, not yet returned to Poland, Milton<br />

Friedman, and Franco Modigliani frequently participated<br />

in the Cowles staff seminars, and I also became a<br />

regular participant.<br />

That started me on a second education in economics,<br />

supplementing the Walrasian theory and<br />

Neyman-Pearson statistics I had learned earlier from


08/03/2004 12.34 http://www.nobel.se/economics/laureates/1978/simon-autobio.html<br />

Henry Schultz (and from Jerzy Neyman in Berkeley) with<br />

a careful study of Keyne's General Theory (made<br />

comprehensible by the mathematical models proposed<br />

by Meade, Hicks, and Modigliani), and the novel<br />

econometric techniques being introduced by Frisch and<br />

investigated by the Cowles staff. With considerable<br />

excitement, too, we examined Samuelson's new papers<br />

on comparative statics and dynamics.<br />

I was soon co-opted by Marschak into participating in<br />

the study he and Sam Schurr were directing of the<br />

prospective economic effects of atomic energy. Taking<br />

responsibility for the macroeconomic parts of that study,<br />

I used as my analytic tools both classical Cobb-Douglas<br />

functions, and the new activity analysis being developed<br />

by Koopmans. Although I had earlier published papers<br />

on tax incidence (1943) and technological development<br />

(1947), the atomic energy project was my real baptism<br />

in economic analysis. My interest in mathematical<br />

economics having been aroused, I continued active work<br />

on problems in that domain, mainly in the period from<br />

1950 to 1955. It was during this time that I worked out<br />

the relations between causal ordering and identifiability<br />

- coming for the first time in contact with the related<br />

work of Herman Wold - discovered and proved (with<br />

David Hawkins) the Hawkins-<strong>Simon</strong> theorem on the<br />

conditions for the existence of positive solution vectors<br />

for input-output matrices, and developed (with Albert<br />

Ando) theorems on near-decomposability and<br />

aggregation.<br />

In 1949, Carnegie Institute of Technology received an<br />

endowment to establish a Graduate School of Industrial<br />

Administration. I left Chicago for Pittsburgh to participate<br />

with G.L. Bach, William W. Cooper, and others in<br />

developing the new school. Our goal was to place<br />

business education on a foundation of fundamental<br />

studies in economics and behavioral science. We were<br />

fortunate to pick a time for launching this venture when<br />

the new management science techniques were just<br />

appearing on the horizon, together with the electronic<br />

computer. As one part of the effort, I engaged with<br />

Charles Holt, and later with Franco Modigliani and John<br />

Muth, in developing dynamic programming techniques -<br />

the so-called "linear decision rules" - for aggregate<br />

inventory control and production smoothing. Holt and I<br />

derived the rules for optimal decision under certainty,<br />

then proved a certainty-equivalence theorem that<br />

permitted our technique to be applied under conditions<br />

of uncertainty. Modigliani and Muth went on to construct<br />

efficient computational algorithms. At this same time,<br />

Tinbergen and Theil were independently developing very<br />

similar techniques for national planning in the<br />

Netherlands.<br />

Meanwhile, however, the descriptive study of<br />

organizational decision-making continued as my main<br />

occupation, in this case in collaboration with Harold<br />

Guetzkow, James March, Richard Cyert and others. Our<br />

work led us to feel increasingly the need for a more<br />

adequate theory of human problem-solving if we were<br />

to understand decisions. Allen Newell, whom I had met<br />

at the Rand Corporation in 1952, held similar views.<br />

About 1954, he and I conceived the idea that the right<br />

way to study problem-solving was to simulate it with<br />

computer programs. Gradually, computer simulation of<br />

human cognition became my central research interest,<br />

an interest that has continued to be absorbing up to the<br />

present time.


08/03/2004 12.34 http://www.nobel.se/economics/laureates/1978/simon-autobio.html<br />

My research on problem-solving left me relatively little<br />

opportunity to do work of a more classical sort in<br />

economics. I did, however, continue to develop<br />

stochastic models to explain the observed<br />

highly-skewed distributions of sizes of business firms.<br />

That work, in collaboration with Yuji Ijiri and others, was<br />

summarized in a book published just two years ago.<br />

In this sketch, I have said less about my work on<br />

decision-making than about my other research in<br />

economics because the former is discussed at greater<br />

length in my Nobel lecture. I have also left out of this<br />

account those very important parts of my life that have<br />

been occupied with my family and with non-scientific<br />

pursuits. One of my few important decisions, and the<br />

best, was to persuade Dorothea Pye to marry me on<br />

Christmas Day, 1937. We have been blessed in being<br />

able to share a wide range of our experiences, even to<br />

publishing together in two widely separate fields: public<br />

administration and cognitive psychology. We have<br />

shared also the pleasures and responsibilities of raising<br />

three children, none of whom seem imitative of their<br />

parents' professional directions, but all of whom have<br />

shaped for themselves interesting and challenging lives.<br />

My interests in organizations and administration have<br />

extended to participation as well as observation. In<br />

addition to three stints as a university department<br />

chairman, I have had several modest public<br />

assignments. One involved playing a role, in 1948, in the<br />

creation of the Economic Cooperation Administration, the<br />

agency that administered Marshall Plan aid for the U.S.<br />

Government. Another, more frustrating, was service on<br />

the President's Science Advisory Committee during the<br />

last year of the Johnson administration and the first<br />

three years of the Nixon administration. While serving<br />

on PSAC, and during another committee assignment<br />

with the National Academy of Sciences, I have had<br />

opportunities to take part in studies of environmental<br />

protection policies. In all of this work, I have tried - I<br />

know not with what success - to apply my scientific<br />

knowledge of organizations and decision-making, and,<br />

conversely, to use these practical experiences to gain<br />

new research ideas and insights.<br />

In the "politics" of science, which these and other<br />

activites have entailed, I have had two guiding principles<br />

- to work for the "hardening" of the social sciences so<br />

that they will be better equipped with the tools they<br />

need for their difficult research tasks; and to work for<br />

close relations between natural scientists and social<br />

scientists so that they can jointly contribute their special<br />

knowledge and skills to those many complex questions<br />

of public policy that call for both kinds of wisdom.<br />

From Nobel Lectures, Economics 1969-1980, World Scientific<br />

Publishing Co., Singapore<br />

<strong>Herbert</strong> A. <strong>Simon</strong> died in 2001.<br />

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