The young daughter of Kim Jong-un is seen as her father’s heir apparent, South Korea’s spy agency has said, after speculation that the North Korean ruler is grooming her to become the fourth member of the dynasty to lead the country since its foundation more than seven decades ago.
There has been intense international speculation about Kim Ju-ae, who is reportedly about 10 years old, since she made her first public appearance in November 2022 when she watched a long-range missile test launch with her father.
The assessment by the National Intelligence Service came soon before residents of two South Korean islands close to the countries’ tense maritime border were ordered to seek shelter after North Korea fired artillery rounds into the sea on Friday.
“The North Korean military conducted over 200 rounds of firing today from about 9-11am (1200 to 0200 GMT) in the areas of Jangsan-got in the northern part of Baengnyeong island and the northern areas … of Yeonpyeong island,” a South Korean defence ministry official said at a briefing.
Officials on Yeonpyeong said civilians had been asked to evacuate, describing the order as a “preventive measure”.
The ministry would not confirm if the order was prompted by artillery fire from North Korea or by South Korean drills conducted in response. However, a text message sent to residents and confirmed by an island official cited “naval fire” to be conducted by South Korean troops from 3pm on Friday.
The waters near the disputed Northern Limit Line have been the site of several deadly clashes, including the sinking of a South Korean navy corvette early in 2010 by what is believed to be a North Korean torpedo.
In November 2010, North Korean artillery fired scores of rounds at Yeonpyeong killing four people, including two civilians, in one of the heaviest attacks on its neighbour since the Korean war ended in 1953.
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said it was not unusual for North Korea to fire artillery into the sea near the maritime border during its winter exercises.
“What’s different this year is that the two Koreas have recently backed away from a military confidence-building agreement, and Kim Jong-un has publicly disavowed reconciliation and unification with the South,” Easley said, adding that Pyongyang could “miscalculate that its claimed nuclear weapons give it control over escalation in case of a deadly incident”, despite warnings from the South’s president, Yoon Suk Yeol, that any attack would be met with a stern response.
Kim Ju-ae has since accompanied Kim Jong-un to major public events, with state media calling her the North Korean leader’s “most beloved” or “respected” child and releasing footage and photos proving her rising political standing and closeness with her father.
South Korea’s spy agency made its assessment of her future role citing a comprehensive analysis of her public activities and the state protocols provided to her.
A senior general knelt and whispered to her when she clapped while watching a military parade at a VIP observation stand in September. She was photographed standing in front of her father at one point during a visit to the air force headquarters in November, with both Kims wearing sunglasses and long leather jackets. In a New Year’s Eve celebration at a packed Pyongyang stadium on Sunday, Kim Jong-un kissed her on the cheek and she did the same to her father.
Most of these scenes had been unimaginable in North Korea, where Kim Jong-un uses ruthless means to secure loyalty among officials and the country’s 26 million people.
The spy agency’s public affairs office said it still considers all possibilities regarding the North Korea’s power succession process because Kim Jong-un, who turns 40 on Monday, is still young, has no known major health issues, and has at least one other child.
The agency has an imperfect record in confirming developments in North Korea, one of the world’s most secretive nations. North Korea’s state media has yet to make any direct comments on succession or whether Kim Ju-ae has any siblings.
Du Hyeogn Cha, an analyst at the Asian Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul, said few could predict whether Kim Ju-ae would eventually become the North Korea’s next leader, adding that she lacked the political achievements essential to be formally anointed.
Since North Korea’s foundation in 1948, it has been successively ruled by male members of the Kim family. Kim Jong-un inherited power after his father, Kim Jong-il, died in late 2011. Kim Jong-il had become leader after his father and North Korea’s founder, Kim Il-sung, died in 1994.
The name of Ju-ae matched what the retired NBA star Dennis Rodman called Kim’s baby daughter, whom he said he saw and held during a trip to Pyongyang in 2013. The spy agency told lawmakers in a private briefing last year that Kim Ju-ae had an older brother, as well as a younger sibling whose gender the agency had not confirmed.
The agency said at the time that she had never been enrolled in an official education facility and was getting homeschooled in Pyongyang, according to some of the lawmakers who attended the briefing.
